Demographic trends in Kazakhstan: 2024 results and forecasts
Demographic trends in Kazakhstan: 2024 results and forecasts
2024 was a continuation of the global trends of population aging and declining birth rates, which have a significant impact on the pension systems of different countries, including Kazakhstan. The world is experiencing a turning point in its demographic transition. As noted at the World Economic Forum: “For the first time in human history, there are more people aged 65 and over than children aged five and under.”
The population of Kazakhstan as of January 1, 2025 amounted to more than 20.3 million people, of which 8.7 million people (42.8%) were under 25, 9.7 million people (48.0%) were from 25 to 65, and 1.9 million people (9.2%) were over 65.[1].
According to forecasts, the population of Kazakhstan will reach 26.3 million people by the end of 2050.
- Life expectancy and proportion of elderly people
Life expectancy after a decline due to the pandemic in 2020-2021 increased from 70.23 in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024.
The dynamics of changes in average life expectancy in the period from 2013 to 2024 are presented as follows:
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Total population | 70.62 | 71.44 | 71.97 | 72.41 | 72.95 | 73.15 | 73.18 | 71.37 | 70.23 | 74.44 | 75.09 | 75.44 |
| Males | 65.91 | 66.90 | 67.49 | 67.99 | 68.72 | 68.84 | 68.82 | 67.09 | 66.33 | 70.26 | 70.99 | 71.33 |
| Females | 75.23 | 75.82 | 76.26 | 76.61 | 76.92 | 77.19 | 77.30 | 75.53 | 74.03 | 78.41 | 79.06 | 79.42 |
Forecasts from both the UAPF and the UN show that by 2050 there will be a high level of demographic old age due to the increase in life expectancy (the share of people aged 60 and older in the total population increased from 9.7% in 2009 to 13.9% in 2024 and is projected to continue to grow to 19% by 2050, i.e. by 2050, on average, every fifth Kazakhstani will be aged 60 and older).
Fact and forecast of the share of people aged 60 years and older in the total population
- Total fertility rate
The total fertility rate (TFR) has a significant impact on the population structure. It shows how many children a woman would give birth to on average throughout her reproductive period (i.e. from about 15 to 50 years).
This indicator decreased from 3.32 in 2021 to 2.80 in 2024. According to UN forecasts, the fertility rate in Kazakhstan is expected to further decrease to 2.42 children per woman by 2050.
| Год | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| TFR | 2.77 | 2.73 | 2.84 | 2.90 | 3.13 | 3.32 | 3.05 | 2.96 | 2.80 |
The decline in birth rates is a global trend for the entire world. With the gradual decline in birth rates and the increase in life expectancy, fewer and fewer people enter the labor market, and the imbalance between pensioners and the working population continues to grow.
- Migration balance
The UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) office in Kazakhstan in the report Analysis of the Population Situation of the Republic of Kazakhstan[2] predicts a gradual achievement of the migration balance of 0 per 1000 people by 2050, which is explained by “the economic development of the republic, which is accompanied by a high demand for labor, the gradual exhaustion of the potential for significant ethnic emigration, and rapid population growth in the countries to the south of Kazakhstan.”
Below is the number of immigrants and emigrants for 2016 – 2024:
| Year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Arrived | 13,755 | 15,595 | 12,747 | 12,255 | 11,370 | 11,039 | 17,425 | 25,387 | 29,282 |
| Departed | 34,900 | 37,725 | 41,868 | 45,225 | 29,088 | 32,256 | 24,147 | 16,094 | 12,732 |
As can be seen, after the pandemic, the annual number of people arriving in Kazakhstan over the past three years has increased by 2.7 times, while the number of people leaving has decreased by 2.3 times since 2020.
- Potential support ratio
Potential support ratio, calculated as the number of people of working age (25 to 64 years old) divided by the number of people aged 65 and over, continues to decline.
The ratio of people of working age (25-64 years old) to pensioners (65+ years old) has decreased from 7.7 in 2012 to 5.2 in 2024. According to forecasts by both the UAPF and the UN, the potential support ratio in Kazakhstan will decrease to 3.4 by 2050, which will increase the “burden” on the working population.
Fact and forecast of the potential support ratio
Let us recall that the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index for 2024, in which the pension system of Kazakhstan was the only CIS country represented, emphasizes the need to modernize pension systems taking into account demographic trends – declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy.
In these conditions, the most effective is a multi-level (mixed) system, including state and funded components, similar to the one in force in Kazakhstan. This model more successfully solves the problem of adequate pension provision and is more resilient to demographic and economic development processes.
However, it is worth considering that the solidarity pension in Kazakhstan is gradually decreasing, since it is calculated taking into account the length of service before 1998. Mandatory pension contributions of 10% may be insufficient for decent pension provision. Therefore, measures have been taken to strengthen the funded component, one of which is the gradual introduction of the ECPC from 2024 in favor of workers born in 1975 and later. Thus, at present in Kazakhstan the responsibility for pension provision of citizens lies with the state, the employee and the employer, as is accepted in world practice.
UAPF was founded on August 22, 2013 on the basis of GNPF APF JSC. The founder and shareholder of the UAPF is the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan represented by the State Institution Committee of State Property and Privatization of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Trust management of UAPF pension assets is carried out by the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. In accordance with the pension legislation, the UAPF attracts compulsory pension contributions, employer’s compulsory pension contributions, compulsory occupational pension contributions, voluntary pension contributions, as well as carries out enrollment and accounting of voluntary pension contributions formed at the expense of the unclaimed amount of guaranteed compensation for the guaranteed deposit, transferred by the organization carrying out mandatory guarantee of deposits, in accordance with the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “On mandatory guarantee of deposits placed in second-tier banks of the Republic of Kazakhstan”, ensures the implementation of pension benefits. The Fund also carries out accounting of target assets and target requirements, accounting and crediting of target savings (TS) to target savings accounts, payments of TS to their recipients in bank accounts, accounting for returns of TS in the manner determined by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan within the framework of the National Fund for Children program (More details at www.enpf.kz)
[1]according to the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan
[2] https://kazakhstan.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/АНАЛИЗ ПОЛОЖЕНИЯ.pdf
